MHA Portal Seeks Public Inputs on Demographic Changes in India

Syllabus: GS2/ Governance, GS3/ Internal Security

Context

• A high-level committee set up by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has launched a portal inviting citizens, government agencies, NGOs, etc. to submit their input on demographic changes in India, preferably post-2011.

About the High-Level Committee on Demographic Changes (HLCDC)

• Constitution: The Union Government constituted a high-level committee to study demographic changes, chaired by Justice Prakash Prabhakar Naolekar in 2026.
• The terms of reference for the Committee are as follows:
  • To undertake an extensive consideration of the challenges arising from demographic changes, including those due to illegal immigration.
  • To study the possible causes of such demographic changes, such as variations in fertility, cross-border movement (including illegal immigration), economic opportunities, and other socioenvironmental factors.
  • To identify the underlying factors behind these changes, including illegal immigration, abnormal settlement patterns, and planned migration.
  • To recommend an appropriate institutional mechanism to strengthen border management, population stabilization, and identification systems for sustained monitoring of such trends.

Demographic Trends in India

• Declining Fertility Rate: According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5), India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined to around 2.0, which is below the replacement level of 2.1.
  • This indicates that India is gradually moving towards population stabilisation at the national level.
• Declining Birth Rate: According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Report 2024:
  • India’s birth rate declined from 21 per 1,000 population in 2014 to 18.3 in 2024.
  • The decline reflects changing demographic patterns, rising urbanisation, increasing literacy, and improved access to healthcare and family planning.

Border-Related Demographic Challenges

• India–Bangladesh Border: India shares a 4,096 km border with Bangladesh across West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram.
  • The Assam Movement (1979-1985) was a popular movement against illegal immigrants in Assam. The movement, led by All Assam Students Union (AASU) and the All Assam Gana Sangram Parishad (AAGSP).
• India–Myanmar Border: India shares a 1,643 km border with Myanmar across Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram.
  • Political instability after the 2021 Myanmar military coup increased the inflow of Chin refugees and Rohingya migrants into Manipur and Mizoram.
• India–Pakistan Border: India shares a 3,323 km border with Pakistan.
  • In Jammu and Kashmir, cross-border infiltration from Pakistan has long been associated with terrorism, militancy, and internal security challenges.

Concerns Regarding Demographic Change

• National security and sovereignty: Illegal immigration may create security challenges by increasing risks of infiltration, organised crime, and border instability.
• Social harmony: Demographic changes linked to religion, ethnicity, or language may increase social tensions, identity politics, and conflicts over land and employment.
  • Ethnic violence in Manipur between Kuki and Meitei highlighted tensions between communities over land, identity, and demographic concerns.
• Resource distribution: Large-scale migration may increase pressure on housing, healthcare, education, welfare schemes, and employment opportunities.
  • Border districts in Assam and Tripura have witnessed concerns regarding land encroachment, competition for jobs, and pressure on public resources due to undocumented migration.
• Protection of indigenous and tribal communities: Indigenous and tribal communities, especially in the North-East region, fear loss of cultural identity, land rights, and political representation due to demographic changes.

Challenges

• Lack of Updated Census Data: The last Census in India was conducted in 2011, while the next Census is scheduled for 2027.
  • The absence of updated Census data may affect the accuracy of demographic assessments and policymaking.
• Human Rights Concerns: There are concerns regarding the possibility of discrimination, social polarisation, and wrongful exclusion.
• Federal and Administrative Challenges: Different States may have varying political, administrative, and social responses to migration-related issues.
• Border Management Challenges: India shares long and porous international borders with neighbouring countries and effective border management requires advanced surveillance technology, infrastructure development, and better inter-agency coordination.

Way Ahead

• Strengthen Border Infrastructure: India should improve border fencing, surveillance systems, and technological monitoring mechanisms to prevent illegal infiltration.
• Conduct Timely Census: The government should ensure timely conduct of the Census and strengthen civil registration systems to enable evidence-based policymaking.
• Ensure Constitutional Safeguards: Any action related to identification or deportation must follow due process and protect constitutional rights.
• Inclusive Population Policies: Population stabilisation measures should focus on; women’s education, healthcare access, awareness programmes, and voluntary family planning measures. Coercive population control measures should be avoided.

Concluding remarks

• A credible assessment of demographic change requires reliable data, transparent methodology and careful differentiation between natural population trends and migration.
• The committee’s findings should strengthen evidence-based planning and lawful immigration management while safeguarding privacy, constitutional rights and social cohesion.

Source: TH, PIB